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OCTOBER 29,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:41 P.M. ET: 

IOWA OPTIMISM – From Bloomberg:  "Iowa's Senate race remains tight as the campaign heads into its final days, with Republican Joni Ernst at 49 percent and Democrat Bruce Braley at 45 percent, a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows.  Just 5 percent of likely voters remain undecided in a race that will help determine control of the Senate."  It will depend on turnout.  I'd like to put this one away.

SOUTH DAKOTA SOLID – We had a brief scare in South Dakota, when it appeared an independent might upset an expected Republican victory.  Scare over.  From Bloomberg:  "Remember when South Dakota was a purple state on the cusp of flipping to Democratic control?  Well, two weeks later, those Democratic dreams have officially died. First, the Democratic candidate, Rick Weiland, complained that his national party sabotaged his chances by running negative ads against Republican Mike Rounds.  Then, a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday showed Rounds leading Weiland by 45 percent to 31 percent. Independent Larry Pressler came in at just 19 percent."  Looks safe.

DISGRACE – Observers are astounded at a report that senior administration officials referred to the prime minister of Israel in obscene terms during an interview with Atlantic magazine, and also called him a coward.  The White House as been trying to do some limited, lazy damage control, never denying the story.  Republicans pounced.  From Times of Israel:  "Republican US senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham lambasted the Obama administration over comments from an anonymous US official calling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a 'chickens..t.'  'We know that relations between allies can be strained at times,' the senators said in a statement released Wednesday. 'But there is no excuse for Obama administration officials to insult the prime minister of Israel, our closest ally in the Middle East, the way they did this week.'"  The problem, of course, is that the left wingers surrounding Obama don't see Israel as our closest ally in the region.  They see Iran as potentially in that role.  Valerie Jarrett, Obama's closest adviser, was born in Iran.  She's known for leftist views.  I'm afraid this is only the start of Obama's post-election foreign policy.  The real stunner may come at the end of the month, with a now-anticipated nuclear agreement with Iran that will be a major cave-in on our side.  Even if our side wins the Senate, Obama still runs foreign policy.  Be afraid.

October 29,  2014     Permalink

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION – AT 11:21 A.M. ET:   The left continues its march, largely unobstructed, to take over the American education system and turn it into a politically correct nuthouse.  From the New York Post: 

New York State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman recently announced a “victory”: After pressure from the attorney general, three New York colleges agreed to limit the questions they ask applicants about their criminal history.

The schools are St. John’s University and two smaller Long Island schools — Dowling and Five Towns Colleges. They will no longer ask student applicants whether they have been “arrested or convicted of a felony.”

Dowling and Five Towns agreed to ask only about prior convictions. St. John’s will continue to ask only about arrests whose dispositions are still pending.

It seems absurd. On the one hand, colleges are today under intense government pressure to keep meticulous records of sexual assaults. Yet our attorney general is discouraging them from asking questions that could help identify those who might have a history with these crimes.

Not even Schneiderman contends the colleges had been doing anything illegal. But he intervened after an advocacy group called the Center for Community Alternatives claimed in a report that because “racial disparities infect the entire criminal justice system . . . screening for criminal records cannot be a race-neutral practice.”

Which leaves us with the modern liberal paradigm for our university campuses: Asking college applicants about their criminal history is racist, while asking them actually to check the proper box for race is not.

COMMENT:  Logically, "women's" groups should vigorously oppose this outrage, because it makes it impossible to learn if an applicant has a history of sex offenses.  But I hear nothing from them.  It's the same old story – on the left, race trumps gender. 

It's an ugly scene, but not enough Americans are aware of what's going on in the education establishment.

October 29,  2014     Permalink

MORE GRIMNESS FOR THE HOPE 'N' CHANGE PARTY – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  The Dems can't catch a break.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Harvard University on Wednesday provided new proof that the Democrats are going to be broadsided in Tuesday’s national elections as millennial voters, in a shocking shift, now prefer a Republican-controlled Congress and give President Obama his second lowest grade ever.

A new and massive poll of 2,029 18-29-year-olds from Harvard’s Institute of Politics just released found that of those who say they will “definitely be voting,” 51 percent want the GOP in charge, 47 percent favoring Democratic control.

Because the numbers are close, however, Harvard said the kid vote is “up for grabs.”

Still, it is a huge shift from the last IOP midterm poll. In 2010, younger voters kept to their historic trend with 55 percent favoring Democrats, 43 percent Republicans. That is an eight-point change, very good news for the Republicans who had feared that the Obama generation would show up at the polls and in knee-jerk fashion simply pull the Democratic levers.

The shift away from Democrats is likely fed by the millennial dissatisfaction with Obama. The poll from IOP, located at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Mass., found their approval of Obama near the low-water mark, at just 43 percent. It dipped below, to 41 percent, just once.

And, said the poll analysis, “Among 18-29 year-olds saying they will ‘definitely be voting in November,’ the president’s job approval rating is 42 percent, with 56 percent saying they disapprove.”

Some 26 percent said that they “definitely” will vote, about equal to 2010. When everyone is included, the choice is for Democratic control of Congress by a 50-43 percent margin.

But, “by a significant 12-point margin,” said the poll, Republican millennials plan to outvote Democrats.

Even worse for Democrats: Hispanic support has dropped off. While Obama beat Mitt Romney by 51 points among the group in 2012, their approval of Obama now just ekes out disapproval by a 49-46 percent margin. Obama had an 81 approval rating in 2009.

COMMENT:  The key is to turn these sentiments into actual votes.  The "youth" vote is historically unreliable.  Voter participation is erratic at best.

The good news, though, is that the Democratic base is breaking up, or at least getting wobbly.  There are opportunities here.  But, as the old political saying goes, you can't beat somebody with nobody.  Republicans must find the right somebody for 2016.

October 29, 2014       Permalink

DEMS AND HISPANICS – AT 9:26 A.M. ET:  Does the Democratic Party have a Hispanic problem?  It appears that one may be developing.  From WaPo: 

This number jumped out at me from the new Washington Post/ABC News poll: It showed that, among Latinos, 50 percent say it doesn't matter who wins the Senate come November. And among those who do think it will matter, twice as many say it would be a good thing (30 percent) if the GOP took over as say it would be a bad thing (15 percent).

This is a demographic, we will remind you, that voted 71-27 for President Obama just two years ago. And only 15 percent are concerned about a GOP-controlled Senate.

While there is a fairly big margin of error (plus/minus 10 points) in this sub-sample, those are still striking numbers -- and they comport nicely with the idea of Hispanics' declining faith in the Democratic Party. And if you can't get voters to believe something will change, it's hard to make a convincing case to get them to vote.

And...

This snapshot poll shows Latinos holding views more similar to political independents then self-identified Democrats. Among Democrats, 50 percent say a GOP Senate would be a bad thing. Even that seems kind of muted -- but not nearly as muted as among Hispanics.

On the economy, Latinos are much more likely to be down on the state of the country -- again, sounding much more like independents than Democrats. Three quarters of Latinos have a negative view on the economy, which (in the abstract, at least) is often voters' top priority. Democrats have a better outlook, with 43 percent viewing the economy positively.

COMMENT:  Once again the Democrats have been caught taking a group for granted.  They simply assumed that, with enough scare tactics at election time, Hispanics would just fall in as ordered.  And I'm afraid the Democratic image of a Hispanic is someone who wears a T-shirt with Che Guevara on it, or someone who thinks illegal immigration is just great.  Modern Democrats really don't know the people they claim to represent. 

October 29, 2014       Permalink

WHERE IT STANDS – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  As we stress, polls are just fun, and sometimes informative.  The real poll is now six days away.  Where do things apparently stand?  From The Hill: 

Democrats’ path to holding their Senate majority has narrowed, with Republicans pulling ahead in critical states and on the cusp of upsets in several others.

Even some within the party are starting to say their midterm prognosis isn’t good.

“Democrats are, as we’ve talked about before, going to have a bad Election Day, no matter how you slice it,” former White House press secretary Jay Carney told CNN on Tuesday evening.

With wins in West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana all but certain, the GOP feels increasingly optimistic about its chances of flipping Arkansas, Alaska and Louisiana, and nabbing at least one of the two most competitive swing states, Iowa and Colorado.

Now, the party is eyeing tightening races in New Hampshire and North Carolina —races Republicans promised all along would be competitive in the end — as signs a GOP wave is building, giving it more options in its pursuit of Senate control.

Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist and former aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), said while he’s still optimistic in North Carolina, Republicans appear to be surging overall.

“In North Carolina, I think the Republicans see the seat slipping away, but in other parts of the country I think they feel they have momentum on their side and they’re going in for the kill,” he told The Hill.

Manley said he still thinks Democrats will be able to “eke it out” in the final week before the midterms. But he acknowledged that New Hampshire and North Carolina are must-wins for the party — and that their tightening is a concern.

“I’m not sure [Democrats] can” lose either one and still control the Senate, Manley said.

COMMENT:  There are three things that can help the Dems right now – Republican overconfidence, an old party disease, resulting in stay-at-homes on election day; the Democratic ground game, dragging people to the polls; and a scare campaign directed particularly at black and Hispanic voters, energizing many of them right before the election.

Many of the races are still very close.  We'll probably know the story a week from today.  Early returns may come in from New Hampshire, Georgia, and North Carolina.  Those are all close, and tough for Republicans.  If the GOP wins two of the three, it will be a very good night.  But the Republicans can actually lose all three and still, mathematically, control the Senate.

October 29,  2014     Permalink 

OCTOBER 28,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:11 P.M. ET: 

GOODY – From Breitbart:  "MANCHESTER, New Hampshire — A new New England College poll shows former Scott Brown back in the lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) by a point and a half.  Brown is up 48.3 percent to Shaheen’s 46.8 percent in the poll of 1,132 likely voters statewide. The poll was conducted on Oct. 24, and has a margin of error of 2.91 percent.  Dr. Wayne Lesperance, New England College's director of the Center for Civic Engagement, attributed Brown’s success to narrowing Shaheen’s lead among women voters.  'A 1.5 percent margin is incredibly narrow and makes this race a statistical dead heat. Brown’s recent success comes from narrowing the lead Shaheen had with women to just under 5 percent,' Lesperance said."  I guess the Dem charge that Republicans are waging a "war on women" is falling apart, as it should.

LAYOFFS AT HBO – From Variety:  "Weeks after the conglom went public with job cuts at its Warner Bros. and Turner Broadcasting divisions, the HBO unit is expected to trim its own staff as well, according to sources. Approximately 7% of its 2,400 employees face pink slips as early as this week.  A rep for HBO declined comment.  An internal email from HBO CEO Richard Plepler that was leaked to Variety made clear his division would not emerge unscathed. The message, which was circulated last week to HBO employees the day of the Time Warner presentation, discloses that a small layoff was in the offing before the start of November."  I've never had the exalted opinion of HBO that others have.  I think it's more trendy than good.  I'm assuming others feel the same way.

POSSIBLE ELECTION PROBLEM – There are some trouble spots for Republicans next week, some of them unexpected.  In Alaska, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich, who'd been down in the polls, is gaining on Republican challenger Dan Sullivan.  Pundits had been moving toward considering this a possible GOP pickup, but are becoming hesitant.  Some late polls show Begich ahead, others show Sullivan with a narrowing lead.  This will be a nail-biter.

A NEEDED WAKE-UP CALL – Colleges generally don't suffer much after athletic scandals.  There's money to be earned and alumni to be made happy again.  But Brian Rosenberg, president of Macalester College in Minnesota, did the unthinkable this week when he suggested that the renowned University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill be stripped of accreditation after it was revealed that, for many years, Chapel Hill was permitting some athletes to "attend" phantom courses that didn't exist or in which they automatically passed.  I've never heard a college president suggest this before.  But some 3,000 students were involved, and were given degrees.  Rosenberg is throwing down an important, long-overdue challenge:  When are colleges going to live up to their own standards?  When will accrediting organizations finally enforce those standards? 

October 28, 2014       Permalink

RADICAL ISLAM SEEN AS ENEMY OF AMERICA – AT 9:43 A.M. ET:   Even with all the political correctness in journalism and the academy, the truth eventually gets through.  From Rasmussen: 

Following two deadly incidents in Canada that appear terrorist related, U.S. voters feel more strongly that radical Islamic terrorism is a threat to this country but also acknowledge overwhelmingly that not all so-called “lone wolf” attacks can be prevented.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 86% of Likely U.S. Voters now consider radical Islamic terrorism a threat to the United States. That’s up 11 points from January. Twelve percent (12%) disagree. This includes 50% who say this terrorism is a Very Serious threat and only three percent (3%) who feel it is Not At All a threat.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 23-24, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

COMMENT:  Some pundits have noticed a return of the "security moms" to the political wars.  And, clearly, national security has come to the fore once again.  That's showing up in every survey.

An Iranian official yesterday described Barack Obama as one of the weakest presidents in American history, giving Iran an opening.  From what I've seen, more and more Americans are coming to that conclusion, and each terrorist incident, including the attack on two policemen in New York this last week, makes that conclusion more firm. 

October 28, 2014       Permalink

THE MARCH OF ACADEMIC FREEDOM – NOT – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:   The left is at it again, naturally at Berkeley, demanding that still one more invitation be withdrawn because the invited person doesn't toe the party line.  From the Jerusalem Post: 

A group of students at the University of California, Berkeley, is demanding that the administration rescind an invitation to comedian Bill Maher to deliver the keynote commencement speech in protest of his remarks against Islam.

According to the Politico news site, Berkeley students signed a petition against Maher, who recently made headlines after he engaged actor Ben Affleck in a heated debate about Muslims.

On Maher’s HBO talk program Real Time, the comedian, Affleck, and noted atheist Sam Harris debated whether Islam was “a religion of peace,” with Maher and Harris offering a dissenting view. An incensed Affleck replied that their sentiments were “gross and racist.”

Students at Berkeley, long regarded as a bastion of liberalism, appear to side with Affleck.

“Bill Maher is a blatant bigot and racist who has no respect for the values UC Berkeley students and administration stand for,” the petition reads. “Bill Maher’s public statements on various religions and cultures are offensive and his dangerous rhetoric has found its way into our campus communities.”

COMMENT:  Yawn.  You may be sure that visitors to Berkeley make the most outrageous comments about Christianity or Judaism, and nothing happens.  Sensitivities at "elite" universities today extend only to Islam, in part because Islam is seen as an opponent of Western civilization, which the elites despise, or at least are told to despise.

Recently, Brandeis University withdrew an honorary degree offered to Ayaan Hirsi Ali, the great advocate for Muslim women, because she was deemed offensive to Islam. 

These demands for invitations to be withdrawn will go on until universities stiffen their resolve and just turn them down.

October 28, 2014       Permalink

OH HOW JUICY – AT 8:43 A.M. ET:  There are now Democrats promoting a Hillary Clinton – Elizabeth Warren contest for the Democratic Party nomination for president in 2016.   I guess jihadists aren't suicidal enough for these Dems.  From The Hill: 

The Democratic field in 2016 has more than enough room for two women competing to be the nation’s first female president, according to liberal activists.

They pour scorn on the notion that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), or any other woman, ought to step aside if former secretary of State Hillary Clinton launches a second quest for the White House.

"The idea that you can't run because there's somebody else who looks like you running? Oh my God, what would all the white men do?" quipped Terry O'Neill, president of the National Organization for Women (NOW).

Nothing like a racist comment.  But, hey, when you live in the 1960s...

"I think the argument that two women shouldn't compete in a primary is insulting to voters — both women and men," said Robert Borosage, the director and co-founder of the progressive Campaign For America's Future.  "This isn't a gender contest. This is a race to determine the best leader for our country. Anyone making that argument in public would be hooted off the stage."

A former senior Democratic staffer who supports Clinton also decried the notion.

"I'm sick of the political boys’ club," said the former staffer, who is female. "We always have several men running at the same time. The more women who run for public office, the better. I want nothing more than to have Hillary as the first female president... [but] people don't become president because they deserve it — who becomes president is up to the voters."

Spokespeople for Clinton and Warren did not respond to requests for comment.

COMMENT:  Obviously, this potential competition is being pushed by the Warren people, who don't consider Clinton left-wing enough.  These are people who really believe the country yearns for another leftist president because they do. 

I'm not sure Warren would go for it if she felt Clinton was likely to get the nomination anyway.  If a nomination battle drained the party, and Clinton went on to lose, the Clinton forces would blame Warren, and deservedly so.  That might well finish her in politics.

At the same time, I don't think Hillary is up for a nomination fight.  If she felt Warren would ultimately be favored by the base of the party, she might simply withdraw. 

It would be a great fight, though – two candidates with a history of dishonesty duking it out.  Ah, the lies that would be told.  I can't wait.

October 28, 2014       Permalink

ONE WEEK – AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  The election will be held a week from today.  Actually, there has been early voting underway in a number of states.  First reports follow the predictions – Republican participation in early voting is higher, in some cases much higher, than it has been in similar elections.  Republicans are guardedly optimistic.  From The Hill:

The final week in a two-year war for control of the Senate is going down to the wire, with Republicans confident they’ll net at least the six seats they need to gain a majority during President Obama’s final two years in office.

Republicans are all but assured of winning the open seats vacated by retiring Democrats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia and have a very good chance of ousting Democratic incumbents in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado and Louisiana.

The GOP also believes it will win an open seat in Iowa, where Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst is in a dogfight with Rep. Bruce Braley (D).

Democratic incumbent Sens. Kay Hagan and Jeanne Shaheen are polling better in North Carolina and New Hampshire, respectively, but those races aren’t sure things for the party either.

Nothing is certain in an unpredictable election year in which incumbents in both parties have come under fire.

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) faces a tough Independent challenger in Greg Orman, and Democrat Michelle Nunn has made a run on Republican David Perdue, putting a once safe Republican Senate seat at risk.

“We’re seeing an unusually large number of very, very close races,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at The Cook Political Report, a prominent handicapper.

Still, the $4 billion midterm campaign is ending with Republicans feeling bullish that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will unseat Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) as majority leader.

“The pundit class on both sides of the aisle has focused too much on individual races that might be aberrant. The overall data is overwhelmingly positive for Republicans,” said Vin Weber, a Republican strategist who served as a senior advisor to several Republican presidential candidates.

COMMENT:  I think that's an accurate picture.  The numbers seem to be with us, but, as we've said repeatedly here, nothing is in the bag.  And there is still a week for the classic October surprise.  Right now, though, I'd rather be a Republican than a Democrat.

October 28,  2014     Permalink